Leah Sanford has a long-time passion for marketing. She enjoyed her corporate marketing role before taking the leap into entrepreneurship. She now helps other entrepreneurs take their brands global.

Her husband, Joel Kelly, shared Leah’s passion for marketing. He dreamed of starting his own business, and together, they built Kelford, Inc.

Through their company, Leah and Joel work with entrepreneurs to help define and articulate their unique value, and then demonstrate it to their very best customers. She finds joy in helping entrepreneurs from Canada and beyond change the world by helping them communicate in a way the world understands.

“An entrepreneur just has this creative mindset of seeing past the obstacles and wanting to try new things. There’s this creative, innovative space that just clicks a little different for an entrepreneur, and it’s so fun to work with.”

Leah strives to infuse fun and creativity into the process of helping entrepreneurs uncover their goals, define their value, and demonstrate it at a distance. So they can keep going, keep growing, and keep building a business they love.

If a business is online, it’s potentially international

Based in Canada, Kelford Inc. is both a local and an international business, thanks to the ease of connecting online.

“We often work with folks who are located here in Canada but sell around the world,” Leah explained.

“We’ve had many clients around the world trying to enter Canadian markets or other global markets. For us, it’s all about demonstrating your value, globally.”

Whether a business owner offers professional services, or artisan-made products via e-commerce, or deep-tech solutions, they may benefit from global trade training.

“Shopify changed the game, and Amazon before that. And Etsy has been this beautiful creator space on a smaller, more personal, artistic scale of what’s possible. It doesn’t have to be down the street anymore. The pandemic really opened that up from on a global corporate scale.”

Leah developed a more global approach from the Certified International Trade Professional (CITP) designation and international business training through the FITTskills program.

A resource that helps open doors

“I would absolutely recommend the FITTskills program to people who love long-term learning. The program is comprehensive – so in the long term, everything stacks really nicely.”

When the world slowed down during the COVID-19 pandemic, Leah decided to invest time into professional development. Invest Nova Scotia offers training and other resources for entrepreneurs including FITTskills training as a FITT educational partner. Leah took advantage of the opportunity and enrolled in the FITTskills International Sales & Marketing course.

“It felt like this little serendipitous moment that kicked me off on the right journey.”

That moment led Leah toward earning the CITP certification. She found the designation and the FITTskills program incredibly practical and easy to apply to real-world situations. In addition to knowledge, it also helped hone her mindset.

“It’s been a confidence boost. It obliterates that imposter syndrome feeling! It’s a great anchoring ground of knowing what I’m doing. I have the FITTskills textbooks to go back to. I have the knowledge base to go back to. I have the resources to draw on, and the connections that it’s opened up have been brilliant.

The program also offers moments of connection and the chance to network with other professionals and expand valuable international connections. Leah even found a new client who was a classmate in the same FITTskills course. She indicated that when looking for partners, the CITP designation acts as a green flag.

“I know that there’s been a vetting process in that credential. It’s a credential that has a governing body and there’s something really beneficial to that. When you’re evaluating apples to apples, this one suddenly is a little more nutritious.”

Paying it forward and building up other entrepreneurs

Leah jumped at the opportunity to help other aspiring entrepreneurs through the Lab2Market program. This federally backed, multi-agency partnership encourages master’s, doctoral, and postdoctoral-level researchers to gain tools that may help them take their expertise and innovations to the marketplace. Leah is a facilitator in the Lab2Market Oceans programs, through Memorial University.

“We’re focused on ocean innovation and technology. Students are bringing forward ideas and products such as oil spill clean up breakthroughs, improved safe navigation through icy waters tools, new marine coatings, etc. The program is comprised of brilliant students, many international, exploring how they might enter a global market—seeing if there’s a market for their idea. And we educate, and hopefully inspire, them to build businesses and take their innovations forward, while supporting them as they go through the roller coaster of emotions in customer discovery!”

Leah credits both completing the FITTskills training and earning the CITP designation for preparing her to help these scientists develop business skills and entrepreneurial mindsets.

Whether local or global, it’s all about relationships

Leah found that her relationships with clients don’t end with the initial project developing a marketing position and strategy. She likes to keep in touch with clients as they implement their strategy. Kelford also offers a daily inspirational positioning newsletter.

“For us, it’s natural to stay in touch and celebrate their wins. And on the flip side ask, are you struggling with anything? Just let them know we’re here.”

Over the years, Leah and Joel worked with dream clients including Big Cove Foods of Nova Scotia. They came to Kelford with a goal of bringing their spice blends from a local product to stores across the country. After exploring their goals and aspirations, Kelford helped them create an actionable marketing strategy.

As they implemented the plan, they found their voice and fun in their marketing, and were able to focus on demonstrating their value to their best customers. And with that focus, they saw pick up from stores across the country as well as growth in their online sales. As they’ve grown, their social impact has grown too—participating in ‘1% for the Planet’ where they donate to charities, and  prepare fresh meals and munchies to Viola’s Place, a homeless shelter in their community.

She sums up her ideal client as, “the entrepreneur who has an ambition that speaks to their soul, has a product or service that can do good out in the world. And then is really crafty, creative, and wants to do something more than for the hustle, more than for the dollars, but something they want to stick with for a really long time because it makes them happy. And that happiness makes their customers happy. That’s the dream.”

“When you go out somewhere to sell your product, it’s not over when you make the sale. Now we have to prove that we’re going to stick around, that we backup our product and our commitments, that we are here with the customer service.”

Looking toward the future in a changing world

Adaptability is crucial for entrepreneurs in an ever-changing market. Leah appreciates having the course text, case studies, and videos available as reference resources whenever new challenges and opportunities arise.

“So, what you knew and what you did two years ago is different now. What I would have recommended two years ago is different now. A marketing strategy I write this year is going to be different from the one I write in a year from now because of how the market changes.”

Leah envisions a future where Kelford, Inc. further expands its portfolio of client collaborations from all over the world. The choices when selling globally can be overwhelming. The knowledge and resources gained through the FITTskills program and validated through earning the CITP designation provide building blocks for success.

“My experience working toward and earning the CITP has been wonderful in terms of knowing “how can we leverage our skills, the tools that we know are out there?” It’ll always be just the two of us, but how do we grow that impact that we’re able to have? And we are really looking at that on an international scale now.”

This was adopted by businesses that remained productive and profitable during that time of economic disruption.

Subsequently, during the Covid-19 pandemic, we noticed, businesses that maintained a global productivity mindset were able to innovate and tweak their processes rapidly to tap into new market opportunities. This resulted in resiliency and growth.

New packaging to serve a new demand

An example of resilience and innovation involved a restaurant that modified the method of serving food. This restaurant identified an opportunity to support truck drivers making deliveries across the Canada and United States border. During the Covid-19 pandemic period, many food outlets along trucking routes were either closed or limited services to drive-through.

Most trucks could not use the drive-through services. The restaurant modified their food packaging to individual serving portions of ready to eat meals. These meals were offered both as freshly cooked and frozen sealed packs. These individual portions were ideal for truckers on their long drives across the border and back. The frozen meal packs were convenient as these could be heated up in the trucks. This enabled truckers to continue deliveries in a timely manner.

The restaurant’s business has grown into a specialty supplier of meals for the trucking industry. An additional benefit was the popularity of these meal packs with students. The restaurant flourished and maintained its take-out unit even after the pandemic. There were no layoffs as servers were re-trained and deployed as packers.

Reaching a wider audience through online services

We ourselves, pivoted to providing lectures at the university using online video platforms. This enabled more rural and out of province students to register and attend classes.

Fellow lecturers at institutions across the country contributed ideas on how to make online teaching more effective. This experience has created opportunities to provide consulting and training services online to clients across a wider geographical reach.

Modifying products to take advantage of near-shore supplies

A local chef who had trained at a Canadian culinary college was able to modify Hong Kong comfort food recipes to the taste of his customers. He utilized ingredients readily available in abundant supply. By doing this he avoided supply chain disruptions in delivery of exotic ingredients from Asia.

Applying a global productivity mindset, he sourced for local ingredients through near-shoring for supplies. He retrained his staff on how to prepare these new menu items. With a more resilient supply of ingredients secured, this enterprising chef was able to grow his customer base and open a branch across the city.

A global productivity mindset helps businesses to stay focused on producing more with existing resources.

Many businesses responded rapidly to the pandemic restrictions by tweaking processes to ensure health and safety of both customers and staff. They limited number of customers entering the stores at any one time and provided hygiene training to staff.

To secure a steady supply, some stores consolidated the range of fresh produce and processed products to items having secured local and international suppliers. A productivity mindset encouraged initiative to ensure resiliency in the supply chain which resulted in continued profitability.

An international café chain has established a network of near-shoring suppliers to ensure timely delivery of fresh coffee beans to their café branches across continents. For their café branches in North America, coffee beans are sourced from growers in South America. Coffee beans for the café branches in Southeast Asia are sourced from growers within the region.Having multiple suppliers within local regions ensures reliability and resilience in their supply chains

Businesses can now pivot towards serving the growing population of middleclass consumers worldwide. This can be achieved through a combination of friend-shoring, near-shoring and re-shoring with businesses along the supply chain adopting a global productivity mindset.

Applying such a mindset to decision making on raw material sourcing or location of manufacturing can result in greater resiliency in the supply chain.

What makes a business able to pivot while others can’t?

We investigated as to why some businesses were able to adapt while others found it difficult to do so. One factor that stood out with those able to adapt was in the fact that prior to the pandemic lockdown the more agile businesses had business owners with a productivity mindset focused on maintaining cash-flow and customer satisfaction.

There was a steep learning curve for many businesses and those focused on productivity and innovation, were able to learn and adapt to the unfamiliar environment.

The successful businesses illustrated in this article all had a global productivity mindset whether they were aware or not. They remained focused on their vision and mission.

This resulted in innovations that helped maintain customer satisfaction while preserving cash flow. This combination improved productivity and promoted business growth.

Stay faithful to your long-term vision and use your mission statement to drive innovation that maintains competitiveness even when market conditions change.

This is the essence of a global productivity mindset, a critical asset that enables business leaders to achieve and maintain success.

Avoid cutting expenses that will cost more in the long run

We are now experiencing potentially disruptive economic conditions that include supply chain challenges, inflation and the introduction of artificial intelligence, all happening simultaneously across industries worldwide. In this environment, it is the most agile leaders with a mindset focused on productivity who will be the ones to succeed.

Some organizations have taken the decision to cut expenses by laying off employees in the higher pay bracket. This can result in a double loss:

1. The morale among the remaining employees can go down, thereby reducing their productivity; and,
2. When the economic situation improves, the organization will have to spend more on training new employees.

Adopting a global productivity mindset can help organizations retain their premium employees in adverse conditions.

3 ways to apply a global productivity mindset

To acquire a global productivity mindset, make sure your work processes are aligned to a long-term vision that shapes a mission driven productive work culture.

To inspire and drive productive performance:

1. Encourage team members to seek out fresh perspectives, training, and flexibility in work practices.
2. Match talent to job requirements, and challenge team members to innovate and adapt to change.
3. Utilize the feel-good factor of achievement to encourage sustainable productive output.

Why not try tapping into the global productivity mindset to see how your business can utilize your existing resources more innovatively?

 “Vision and mission statements must come off the boardroom walls and be instilled into the workforce as a global productivity mindset driving the organization” – Quote from Page 12

At a time when stability and access to working capital are essential, there is an urgent need for more effective, robust supply chain finance (SCF) solutions.

This makes the passing of a concise but extremely powerful piece of legislation particularly pertinent. The UK’s Electronic Trade Documents Act 2023 (ETDA) came into force in September.

While most businesses will likely have paid little heed to this development, its relevance is profound for companies of all sizes that trade domestically or internationally.

The legislation has an immediate global impact as between 60%-80% of all global trade is governed by English law, regardless of the domicile of the counterparties.

The ETDA reflects the essence of the 2017 UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR), that has been adopted by Singapore and the UAE amongst others, and which will form the root of similar legislation being adopted by G20 nations.

So, what is the ETDA? And importantly, what does it mean for businesses?

One small step for legislation

The processes behind funding trade and drafting their documentation largely rely upon the same laborious, manual methods. Consequently, they are insecure, inefficient, siloed, and impractical. Digitalisation is widely acknowledged as being the way forward for both physical and financial supply chains but applying digital capabilities to trade finance is not straightforward.

Unlike in other sectors of finance, where digital progress is more advanced, the rules upon which trade finance is governed date back centuries. Trade finance is therefore built on entrenched, longstanding legal specifications established for a paper-based age. The principles of “possession” and “transfer”, for example – which pertain to the exchange of trade documentation and are vital to facilitating trade finance – have remained largely unchanged in most jurisdictions.

In effect, according to the wording of global trade rules, paper documents are the format by which trade finance has to be conducted. And this has been the fundamental barrier to digital trade document adoption.

What the ETDA does is give certain documents commonly used in global trade the same legal status in digital form as their paper-based equivalents.

Superficially a small change, this amendment is the breakthrough that has been needed to allow digital documents to become mainstream and come into their own.

One giant leap for businesses and their balance sheets

Specifically, the ETDA has significant implications for negotiable documents such as promissory notes and bills of exchange. It is the digitalising of these documents – and their legal recognition – that is key. Free from the inefficiency constraints of paper, digital versions of negotiable instruments (or “DNIs”) are creating an avenue to transform and optimise SCF, and, in the process, discard inefficient and insecure paper-based processes.

From a corporate treasurer’s perspective there is considerable value to be gained – including, fundamentally, improvements to working capital through more effective funding and cost savings, with earnings within their existing supply chains.

DNIs are a scalable, flexible and binding promise of payment by a business. Crucially, this enables today’s fractured, impractical funding structures that result in lengthy payment cycles and strains on working capital to be completely inverted – from a “bottom up” approach to a “top down” one.

This means tying funding to the balance sheet of the issuer, rather than that of the generally weaker creditworthiness of businesses’ SME suppliers. A business can therefore borrow from a financial institution (FI) and then cascade funding down to their suppliers by issuing DNIs.

DNIs dispense with the separate assignment agreements and irrevocable payment undertakings (IPUs) that are currently necessary for the transfer of trade documentation. And, with the DNI the basis of the lending rather than non-negotiable invoices, not only can 100% of invoice values be financed, but payments can be made immediately, thereby massively speeding up access to funding across supply chains.

This approach enables smaller suppliers to optimise their working capital through early payments which, in turn, ensures supply chain security for the business, generates opportunities for supplier discounts, and improves buyer-supplier relationships.

DNIs also allow corporates to have far greater control of how and when they use SCF, including being able to negotiate payment terms with suppliers to pay early or on time, depending on their liquidity needs. They are inherently more flexible than existing solutions, meaning treasurers can effortlessly switch between different funding methods – such as employing either their own or third-party cash – depending on which is the most effective for them at any given time, predicated, for instance, on their business cycle or cash position.

For example, if a typically cash-rich business runs into liquidity issues, instead of having to limit their dynamic discounting programmes, they can use DNIs to access external liquidity to extend payment terms as needed.

In terms of bottom-line contribution, a typical supplier early payment programme using digital documents such as this, can result in annual net benefits of between 1-7% of cost of goods. Furthermore, regardless of whether supplier early payment discounts are negotiated, businesses can also use digital instruments to avail themselves of post maturity finance and can thereby ‘buy’ themselves an approximate additional 50% cash in hand (i.e. a 60 day supplier invoice is settled with a bill or bill drawn for an additional 30 days) to plug financing gaps as needed.

Harnessing Digital Negotiable Instruments (DNIs)

One consideration that must be made regarding DNI adoption is the ETDA stipulation that the use of a reliable electronic trade document system and sufficient security on electronic documents is required for a DNI to be legally recognised. While clarity regarding exactly what constitutes a “reliable system” is currently being sought, there are DNI solutions readily available that, by passing key possession and reliability tests, already conform with the ETDA’s definition.

These solutions, such as the TradeSecure platform, place quantum-secure digital seals around DNIs that require a specific cryptographic key and protect electronic signatures using quantum notary technology. Such capabilities ensure DNIs cannot be duplicated or tampered with, thereby assuring the ownership and authenticity of the instrument. Easy trackability also streamlines and automates the audit process.

ETDA: Enter The Digital Age

One can reasonably ask that, if the use of promissory notes is already possible, why don’t businesses employ them? Simply put, without digitalisation, this process was heavily reliant on physical, paper documentation, the inherent administrative costs that accompany it, and the slow pace of transfer via mail. As a short-term financing process (between 90-120 days), long turnarounds have made them previously not worthwhile.

With digital documents, there is no long waiting period for paperwork to move through the supply chain, creating a far more readily available cash pool. This is because digital instruments can be exchanged in (close to) real-time, expediting processes by approximately 10-12 days, and thereby enhancing time to revenue and operational efficiency.

DNIs can easily be integrated into current SCF programmes via APIs, making them interoperable with existing global trade platforms and businesses’ ERP systems. For smaller businesses that may not use ERP, invoice data can be uploaded simply using CSV files. DNI adoption is therefore non-disruptive, straightforward, and efficient.

Once onboarded, using digital trade documents rather than paper versions will bring direct cost savings, with costs linked to paper trade documents estimated to be three times more than their electronic counterparts.

There is little doubt that to the bystander that the ETDA is a dry and inconsequential piece of legalese. However, by enabling the digitisation of trade documentation, it and similar legislation being implemented across the G20 and beyond, promises to create opportunities for corporates to conduct trade financing unlike what has come before.

By issuing a digital promissory note (DNP) or bill of exchange that gets immediately financed by a financial institution and discounted by suppliers, and then being able to choose the timing and frequency of the use of these solutions is transformational for businesses – driving extensive commercial advantage. As businesses seek to seize the opportunities abound and adoption inevitably accelerates, let us enter the age of SCF 2.0.

Some of these topics keep reappearing year after year, due to new developments and their continued place of prominence in the minds of global trade practitioners. This year the atmosphere of volatility and uncertainty continues, leaving many to question the value in forecasting at all. But, as global economist Peter Hall put it:

“Here’s the deal: forecasting is alive and well, if the impact of structural changes is properly understood. Data and cyclical fundamentals together show that the global economy is stronger than news reports have indicated. This will help it to absorb higher interest rates without drastic fallout, and to continue growing for a number of years to come. To do this successfully, more capacity will be needed to deal with rising demand.”  – Watch the full video “Is Forecasting Passe?”

Read on for our 10 2024 trends.

Curious about our past predictions? Check out what we thought 2017-2023 had in store.

• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2023 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2022 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2021 
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2020
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2019
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2018
• 10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2017

1. 2024 global trade outlook “uncertain but pessimistic”

Not exactly a cheerful headline. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its Global Trade Update on December 11, projecting a highly uncertain and generally pessimistic outlook for 2024.

Factors contributing to this outlook include ongoing geopolitical tensions, escalating debt, economic fragility, lower demand in developed countries, reduced trade in East Asia, an increase in trade-restrictive measures, commodity price volatility, and lengthening supply chains, especially between China and the United States.

Despite these challenges, the report notes some positive trends in 2023, including a slight increase in trade volumes, indicating resilient global demand for imports, and a $500 billion growth in trade in services, boosted by delayed COVID-19 recovery.

The report also highlighted the impact of “friend-shoring, and a general decrease in the diversification of trade partners. For more on friend-shoring, skip to Trend 6.

The update provides a mixed picture across economic sectors. Looking ahead to 2024, the commodities sector faces continued uncertainty due to regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions. Overall, the report paints a complex and challenging landscape for global trade in the coming year.

2. Inflation and the global economy

The global economy remains fragile and uncertain, revealing and worsening structural weaknesses in an interconnected global system. Again, we need to look to the emerging trend of offshoring, reshoring, and friend-shoring, creating an overall realignment of global trade between rival blocs. This is expected to reshape supply chains, necessitating adjustments in company relationships and giving rise to new competition.

One of the central challenges facing the global economy in 2024 is of course inflation, with projections indicating a global inflation rate of 5.8%, and core inflation not expected to return to target levels of around 2% until 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, variations in inflation rates are anticipated across countries and regions based on economic conditions, policy responses, and external shocks.

While the United States experiences relatively low inflation rates, the global average masks substantial differences among countries and regions. Advanced economies are projected to see inflation below 3.0% in 2024 after averaging 4.6% in 2023. In Canada, inflation is expected to continue to decline, staying between 2% and 3%, stabilizing at 2% toward the end of 2024, according to the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC). Notably, the economic landscape includes a weak Eurozone and a particularly challenged United Kingdom.

Altogether, the realignment of global trade relationships and ongoing inflation challenges are expected to have a significant impact on supply chains, corporate relationships, and competitive dynamics in the coming year and beyond.

3. Cybersecurity risks continue to rise

2023 was a big year for cybersecurity, during which we saw the biggest ever denial of service (DDoS) attack and an increase in cyber attacks with big impacts such as the cyber attack that forced the FAA to ground all flights due to issues with a critical system.

The WEF listed “Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity” as the 8^th biggest risk in its Global Risks Report 2023.

Forbes lists 12 predictions for cybersecurity in 2024:

1. Rise In Ransomware Attacks
2. Increased AI-Powered Attacks
3. Flipside: AI As A Cybersecurity Tool
4. IoT Vulnerabilities
5. Electric Vehicle Hack Apocalypse
6. Quantum Computing Threats
7. Data Velocity And Hybrid Infrastructures
8. Need For DevSecOps
9. More Zero Trust Adoption
10. Stricter Data Privacy Regulations
11. Additional Supply Chain Attacks
12. Biometric Authentication Challenges

Ramping up cybersecurity action plans and closely monitoring the latest emerging threats will top many companies’ agendas for 2024.

4. Policy impact after COP28’s first ever “Trade Day”

At the COP28 climate summit in October, global leaders marked the first “Trade Day” as part of the UN’s annual climate conference, underscoring the crucial role of trade in combating climate change. Trade is seen as a powerful tool in addressing climate change, influencing global carbon emissions as well as facilitating the flow of green goods and services essential for the low-carbon energy transition.

The global production and distribution of goods and services contribute to roughly a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions, according to UNCTAD.

During Trade Day’s launch a roadmap of trade policy options were outlined aiming at an equitable and ambitious response to climate change. Discussions throughout the day centered on leveraging trade policies to decarbonize global supply chains, incentivize businesses toward a net-zero future, secure value chains related to the energy transition, and integrate environmentally responsible practices into trade finance.

Emphasis was made on the need for a multi-lateral approach to creating climate and environment regulations so that small businesses and vulnerable countries aren’t entangled in a complex web of rules.

How this multilateral approach to more equitable and environmentally friendly trade policy will come together remains to be seen, and we will be watching for updates throughout 2024.

5. Trade-restrictive measures on the rise

Returning to UNCTAD’s The Global Trade Update, the report highlights a notable rise in trade-restrictive measures in 2023, particularly non-tariff measures (NTMs). This has been attributed to an increase in industrial policies and added pressure for countries to fulfill their climate commitments. As a result, nations are adopting policies that favor domestic industries and aim to decrease dependence on foreign supply chains.

A recent report from UNCTAD, titled “Trade regulations for climate action,” identified 2,366 NTMs related to climate change, impacting 3.5% of potentially tradable goods and representing 26.4% of global trade. For better or worse, UNCTAD has predicted that these policies are likely to reduce the growth of international trade in the year ahead.

6. Friend-shoring planning in 2022 and 2023 is coming to fruition in 2024

The continue swing toward “friend-shoring” for geopolitical closeness and overall risk reduction has led manufacturers to invest billions in building factories that are either closer to the end consumers or in less risky regions.

This trend continues after years of supply chain upheavals caused by a litany of weather, geopolitical and Covid-10 disruptions. The transportation sector is responding by increasing capacity in regions such as cross-border connections between Canada,U.S. and Mexico connecting to Latin America.

“During 2022, 14% of all U.S. imports by value originated in Mexico, according to data analyzed by Supply Chain Dive. Similarly, U.S. firms have long been financially active in the country, and are responsible for 42% of the total foreign direct investment in Mexico since 2006,” according to SupplyChainDive

There has been a general trend of re-organization of shipping routes enacted over the last couple of years that are now starting to operate at full capacity. Logistics companies are racing to fill the demand. Intermodal logistics services out of Mexico have been steadily growing as the CUSMA trade agreement increased demand in the region and became even more attractive within near-shoring and friend-shoring strategies.

UNCTAD also highlights a marked increase in trade concentration. “There has been an overall decrease in the diversification of trade partners, indicating a concentration of global trade within major trade relationships.”

7. Digital trade growth continues, particularly in Africa and Asia Pacific

Digital trade, comprising all digitally ordered or delivered transactions, is reshaping the global economy.

A significant trend in this digital era is the remarkable growth of digitally delivered services, which have nearly quadrupled in value since 2005, passing the growth of goods and other service exports. In 2022, these digitally delivered services made up 54% of total services exports, offering new opportunities for players in the global market, including micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Although developed economies lead in exporting digitally delivered services, developing economies, including those in Africa and Asia Pacific, are increasingly participating in this trend. However, least-developed countries (LDCs) are experiencing slower growth in the export of digitally delivered services.

Governance in digital trade is also growing, and significant progress has been made through bilateral and regional trade agreements. Today most FTAs include digital trade provisions. On top of trade rules, regulations addressing cross-border data flows, consumer protection and issues around competition are being addressed through digital trade policy.

We’ll be watching for developments in the technology, standards and trade policy that come into play in 2024.

8. AI in everything

AI is transforming international trade, along with everything else, at a breakneck pace. This is presenting as many challenges as opportunities to businesses facing cybersecurity risks aided by AI, as well as using AI to find and protect against potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

It’s providing a myriad of supply chain technology solutions to improve processes in managing inventory and production, and automating logistics. It is also being used to ease cross-border regulation by automating form filling, checking for documentation errors, and help with compliance checks.

Financial institutions are using AI to assess financial risk and detect potential fraud. Small businesses are benefiting from productivity gains by using AI to generate trade documents, assist with translation, customers service and much more.

As AI is increasingly coming into play in business and in every day life, we will be watching with a particular eye on how it’s being used in trade functions and international businesses.

9. Supply chain volatility is still a huge factor in 2024

At the time of writing, shipping lines are being diverted from routes through the Suez Canal as attacks on cargo ships have recently escalated. At the same time, drought in the Panama Canal region is causing a major bottleneck and disrupting trade flows as shippers look for alternative routes or face delays.

Supply chain disruption has been the name of the game for several years now, with major challenges in capacity amid labour shortages and fluctuating demand during the Covid lockdowns of 2020-2021, geopolitical conflicts and weather-related delays.

While things have now largely stabilized since the pandemic with less congestion and a more normalized supply-demand, new risks such as cyberattacks, continued geopolitical conflicts, and labour shortages and strikes.

Fortunately, there are several tools and new technologies emerging to assist businesses with better plan and risk mitigation including the use of AI tools, digitization of trade and shipping documents, and increased transparency.

10. Gaining new skills most important in getting hired and promoted in 2024

An Employ Recruiter Nation Report shows that 39% of employers plan to focus on internal mobility in 2024. This indicates HR decision-makers’ awareness that in a competitive job market, hiring highly qualified candidates is challenging, necessitating a focus on retaining existing employees.

To do this, there’s a growing trend for organizations to offer career pathing, reducing employee turnover and enabling them to transition into roles that offer challenges and new learning opportunities. This eases the burden on hiring teams, as businesses seek to acquire new skills rapidly through upskilling and internal mobility.

Providing stipends for certifications, mentorship programs, and career development training will be crucial for leaders to empower employees to enhance their skill sets and advance within the organization. While external talent sourcing remains important, prioritizing internal mobility is set to be a major focus in 2024.

At the same time, emphasis will shift from the prestige of past employers on resumes to the importance of individual skills, which also improves diversity, equity, and inclusion. This shift benefits organizations as it broadens the talent pool. Businesses are expected to concentrate on addressing skills gaps which will help achieve the organization’s long-term strategic goals.

The renewed focus on skills is in both technical and leadership competencies, evident in job postings and internal opportunities. Recruiters will continue to prioritize leadership skills, ensuring that the current short-term focus doesn’t lead to leadership skill gaps in the future.

Peter Hall has long been an influential voice in the international business community. He served as VP & Chief Economist at EDC for over a decade. In the FITT Economic Briefing series, Peter explores the current state of the world economy, forecasts and what it all means for today’s exporters.

Here is a recap of the first three installments in the series. For the full picture, watch the videos and be sure to subscribe to FITT’s Youtube channel so that you will be the first to know when there is a new briefing update.

Is forecasting passé? Projections and pandemonium are a strange mix

Released in August, 2023

Chaos is a big theme these days – it appears in books, movies, high-level economic and political discussions, and it has come to permeate our view of things. Whether it’s climate change, technological change, de-globalization, terrorism, populism, pandemics,  demographic change, misinformation, corporate ethical issues, IP, AI or the host of other mega-shifts I’ve left off the list, each individual issue is daunting on its own; collectively, they are something of a nightmare.

The shock, persistence and randomness of these issues has led many to conclude that it’s not really possible to see the future, that the models of the past are broken. That’s probably true if everything has changed. But everything hasn’t changed.

The traditional business cycle is still relevant

We still talk the business cycle and its four phases: growth, peak, recession and recovery. All of these terms are still in our business vocabulary, and still active in reality.

What’s confusing about today’s business cycle is that it doesn’t seem to be following the same cadence as in the past. In recent history, we could count on a recession happening roughly every 10 years. However, dating back to the early 1980s, the world has undergone significant positive shocks that have increased our collective capacity to grow. Things like computing power, telecommunications, the rise of emerging markets, globalization, and myriad related factors and applications have revolutionized and set whole new limits to our growth potential.

It’s really hard to argue that in the big, driver economies there is clear evidence of pre-recession excesses. In fact, there is ample evidence of the exact opposite – a massive anti-bubble of pent-up demand.

If you don’t agree, you’re in good company – but try these arguments on for size: first, the COVID-19 policy-induced recession simply deferred a lot of intended spending. And the money is there for it, from incomes that were just banked to paid-out but unspent stimulus money. Second, prolonged sluggish growth created a huge groundswell of pre-pandemic pent-up spending. Third, at the same time, Americans vastly reduced their personal debt levels. Fourth, the 2008 housing disaster, most evident in the U.S. market, brought chronic underbuilding that created a big supply-demand gap that will take years to fill. In the U.S. and Europe, housing is on the up and up. No wonder the Fed is finding the inflation battle hard.

Canada and the U.S. are facing different scenarios into 2024

Ditto for Canada? Sadly, no. Soaring consumer debt and poor housing fundamentals will not respond well to aggressive interest rate hikes. This, together with higher consumer prices will ensure that Canadian consumers are tighter with their cash. Avoiding a significant domestic recession will be very difficult for Canada to do.

This time around, Canada’s exporters will get a free pass. The relative strength of our key trading partners will likely shift business interest more to an export focus – by extension, heating up demand for international trade expertise.

Not only will exports partly offset the domestic malaise, but that same domestic weakness could well free up labour and plant capacity for the export sector – it’s actually a good moment to keep an eye open for talent that’s currently being shed in the high tech, financial services and skilled-trade firms that primarily serve the internal economy. It’s also a good time to be on the lookout for strategic investment plays.

Here’s the deal

Forecasting is alive and well, if the impact of structural changes is properly understood. Data and cyclical fundamentals together show that the global economy is stronger than news reports have indicated. This will help it to absorb higher interest rates without drastic fallout, and to continue growing for a number of years to come. To do this successfully, more capacity will be needed to deal with rising demand. That will be good for Canadian exports, Canadian business investment, and skilled international trade professionals.

Is Inflation Going the Wrong Way? Analysts say more rate hikes ahead

Released in September, 2023

As you know, businesses, exporters and consumers have already paid a huge price in the Bank of Canada’s inflation fight. The sharply higher cost of borrowing has hit us from all angles – personally, in business investment projects and working capital needs, and in business flows.

Haven’t rate hikes gone far enough? Why aren’t they more effective? What about core inflation?

That’s all the Bank of Canada cares about, right? Partly right – in an inflation fight, they’re looking at everything.

What wasn’t discussed in immediate news flashes over the past few months is that certain key groups in the CPI basket are either deflating or in disinflation territory. Take household operations, furnishing and equipment, for instance. It’s a category that accounts for almost 15% of the CPI basket, and has fallen by an average of 0.5% per month for the past three months. That’s an annualized drop of 5.9%, a pretty serious tumble. Guess what – this category isn’t alone. Clothing and footwear tumbled by 2.8% in the past two months alone. Meanwhile, health care costs have flatlined. Add it up, and about a quarter of the basket is really hard-hit.

Still a lot of interest costs pain ahead

This sure complicates the budgeting process. Businesses are struggling with irrepressible energy and transportation costs, critical for international trade, and a softening domestic market that’s putting downward pressure on selling prices. Weak producer prices are a mixed blessing; input costs are muted, but those selling intermediate goods are in a squeeze.

Monthly increases in mortgage interest costs are still rising at a double-digit pace that has persisted for 14 months, and is almost sure to continue for some months to come. In July alone, growth was at a 24% annualized pace. The pace was actually higher a few months back, but today’s growth is on top of previous gains and is almost sure to barrel on in the coming months. For interest costs, there’s still a lot of pain ahead.

Is the cure worse than the disease?

Now wait a minute; when we’re talking about inflation from interest rate hikes, isn’t that inflation that’s sort of caused by the Bank of Canada? Well, I’m afraid so.

This is one of those strange situations where fighting fire with fire is the remedy. But if that’s the case, shouldn’t the measure of success be the price path of everything but mortgage interest costs? That is, are the fires that are being intentionally started helping us conquer the original fire? Seems reasonable.

That should be easy; mortgage costs are hefty, so tackling what remains should be easy, right? Not quite; hard as it may be to swallow, the weight of mortgage interest costs in the the entire 2022 CPI basket was just 3.46%. But don’t despair; multiply that by the 30.6% year-on-year growth in this category and you add a full percentage point to headline CPI!

Here’s the deal

Monetary policy remains a delicate dance. Rate hikes to date will still be biting down hard on the economy well into next year. Spurious and fleeting price changes will doubtless complicate the exercise, but the Bank’s potion seems to be working. As we’ve seen in the past, too much is lethal.

Navigating Near-shoring: Tempering enthusiasm with caution

Released in November, 2023

It seems everywhere there’s business-talk, near-shoring is one of the key topics. Whether in keynote presentations, strategy meetings or side-bar conversations, there’s lots of buzz.

While serious talk of near-shoring is nothing new, springing to life with SARS-1, business-arresting weather and seismic events and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, it really took the COVID-19 pandemic to kick it into tangible action. In investment-speak, that’s pretty recent.

It takes time to actually get shovels in the ground, but that seems to be happening in spades in 2023.

What does this mean for exporting businesses in Canada?

Many are welcoming this enthusiastically. They see new investments coming in, with employment opportunities, ribbon-cutting ceremonies and of course tax dollars to follow. And if they’re not coming here, well, they’re setting up shop in a ‘friendlier’ location. Supply chains are more secure. Shipping will be more predictable, and require shorter lead times. In short, it’s much more about us, and it’s keeping the so-called ‘bad guys’ out. But is it all positive?

6 key near-shoring challenges for exporters

Unfortunately, there are a good few things to watch out for:

1. Higher costs

Let’s face it, under globalization, business was organized internationally to minimize costs. Competitive pressures ensured that businesses would make cost-efficient decisions. It’s logical, then, that unwinding this process will result in higher-cost production. The timing isn’t great, as we are already dealing with the first serious inflation outbreak in 31 years. Exporting businesses will have to factor this into their plans, and will have to be creative to remain competitive.

2. Labour shortage

New domestic investments will require workers, and these – at least in Canada, the U.S. and Western Europe are in short supply. As such, these new operations will likely bid up the cost of labour, which no doubt will seep into our own organizations, magnifying wage pressures that are already present.

Canada’s acute shortage of skilled labour also suggests that new investments may well poach skilled labour from existing operations, compromising production from existing facilities, and again, adding to wage pressures for skilled workers.

3. Financing

The timing of new investment activity isn’t great, as it’s clashing with the recent spike in interest rates. While we may welcome all of this new activity, the cost of what it produces will likely have to factor in increased borrowing costs.

4. Location

You may be happy that a key part of your supply chain is moving closer, say from China to Mexico. If you haven’t dealt with Mexico-based businesses before, there’s likely a lot to learn about transactional, taxation and logistics issues, among other things. And even if you are familiar with the new market, there may well be differences that relate to the nature of the goods and/or services in question.

5. Are potential partners really near?

Near-shoring has created a wave of investments from offshore suppliers, in an attempt to be treated as local content. China is particularly active, with anecdotal evidence suggesting strongly that it is investing in North America, especially Mexico, and in places like South Korea which have preferential trade agreements with the U.S.

This new investment is generally being welcomed by the recipient jurisdictions, but if in U.S. policymakers’ eyes this is ultimately viewed as a violation of the spirit of near-shoring, then these investments – and those supplied by them – may well find themselves on the wrong side of Canada’s top customer. With this in mind, remember that USMCA is up for renewal in 2026.

6. Politics vs business

Businesses make investment decisions based on long-term dynamics, given the amounts being committed and the need to generate shareholder value. Politics is often on a shorter horizon, and can be fickle. When it finally dawns on consumers that they will ultimately pay the bill for this, in addition to current inflation pressures and higher interest rates, they may sour on near-shoring.

At the same time, businesses need to be aware that higher-cost repatriated investment means that there are still lower-cost operations elsewhere that could well threaten future competitiveness. They, too, may lose enthusiasm for near-shoring. Best to keep an open mind and remain flexible.

Here’s the deal

Past promises to re-shore, near-shore or re-localize supply chains weren’t honoured for a reason. Businesses simply weren’t convinced that the long-run costs of disruption justified a substantial re-working of their global production networks. Political pressure and security concerns have convinced many that it’s time to make good on the promises.

Whether or not the changes stick remains to be seen. Where national security is concerned, near-shoring is here to stay. For the rest, time alone will tell. As near-shoring is essentially a policy in flux, it is critical to keep an eye on the progression of the issue in the coming months.

Don’t miss a FITT Economic Briefing update. Subscribe to FITT’s Youtube Channel and turn on notifications.

Effects of a lower demand for ground freight

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic—a world event that spiked freight demand exponentially—the trucking industry has now entered a recession-like period due to an inflated number of drivers and a normalized demand for ground transportation. What does this mean for consumers in the trucking industry and the shipping companies that supply them? Let’s find out.

Effects on customers

From the customer end of the spectrum, a lower market demand for ground freight is a positive thing. They’ll get to take advantage of shorter (or non-existent) wait times for shipping, last-minute availability, and more affordable shipping costs.

Effects on shipping companies

Shipping companies, on the other hand, suffer as a result of lower demand.

Global Trade magazine says the decline in demand has “placed the sector at a disadvantage during annual contract negotiations.”

Since there are more trucks available than loads that need shipping, shipping companies have to compete against each other and lower prices in order to secure short-term and long-term contracts.

Digital freight brokerage and AI

Freight brokerage is the business of matching truck drivers to shipping companies and other businesses that require their services. Freight brokerage can occur between independent truck drivers and small businesses, but it is also used within a single company to streamline communication between drivers and warehouse personnel.

The freight brokerage process used to be conducted with paper and phone calls, but the industry has been making a switch to digital freight brokerage, particularly with the use of artificial intelligence technology.

Digital freight brokers can take two forms. Businesses that prefer working directly with people rather than technology can hire a digital freight brokerage company that will gather information about available drivers, as well as the details of the load that needs to be shipped, and then will handle the matchmaking process.  There are also digital freight broker apps that collect the same information and allow businesses to cut out the middleman.

The main benefit of digital freight brokerage is the ability to match customers to freight trucks much more efficiently. Not only does this make the process easier for everyone involved, but it also streamlines the entire supply chain and improves customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Hwy Haul describes five benefits of digital freight brokerage: time savings, less paperwork, better prices, 24/7 access, and optimization of driving routes.

Competition within the shipping industry

Due to changes in demand for ground freight along the entire supply chain, competition in the shipping industry has grown significantly. Most notably, long-standing shipping companies are being pitted against newer startups with a highly digital business portfolio.

Legacy shipping companies are still fairly determined to maintain the status quo and are resistant to change. Unfortunately, slow attempts to digitalize will simply not be able to sufficiently meet the changing needs of businesses on a global scale. While they are currently responsible for a large portion of the market, new digital-based startups are innovating and stirring up interest in a new way forward.

Commerce Ventures summarizes things perfectly:

“The lack of action by the most dominant players to address the industry’s biggest challenges has given rise to a growing number of startups ready and waiting to disrupt trucking as we know it.”

As businesses start to demand faster shipping times, more accessible brokers, and better rates, the newer digital companies will have an undeniable edge over long-standing companies set in the ways of the past. Given the current state of the industry, legacy shipping companies will undoubtedly begin to lose their hold on the market in favor of revolutionary startups.

Expected developments in shipping tech

Although the future is impossible to predict, industry experts can make educated guesses in regard to the expected developments for the short term and long term where digital brokerage and AI trucking are concerned.

Short term predictions

Digital freight brokerage is afflicted by a number of challenges that prevent it from serving the entire industry right now. For example, the shipping solutions available from this source today are heavily skewed towards flat beds and vans and away from niche specializations like refrigerated trucks. As a result, much of the industry cannot be served. In the short term, it is predicted that this problem and others will be solved by a growing demand for the services and advancing technology.

In the field of self-driving trucks, the short-term expectations are as follows: research and development will continue, including road testing and small-scale integrations, and industry leaders will continue to open their minds to the possibilities of autonomous trucking.

Long term predictions

Digital brokers have been called a “solution to improve agility, reliability and performance of supply chains…” by CIFFA. As time goes on, it is expected that the digitalization of freight brokerage will transition from its role as a new trend to an established norm in the industry.

As technology advances, self-driving trucks will also make their way onto roadways through one small integration at a time. Autonomous trucking has the potential to revolutionize the industry as a whole, but it is also fraught with technology-related barriers and the challenge of trust and safety in fully autonomous vehicles.

As the trucking industry continues to evolve toward a digital future, digital freight brokers will become an even more integral component of the supply chain. Innovation in the realm of AI trucking—particularly self-driving trucks—will become more mainstream, and legacy shipping companies will be forced to either keep up with the changing technology or fall far, far behind. The future is coming, and the future is digital freight brokerage and AI technology.

With a recession being predicted to hit the U.S. economy in late 2023 and early 2024, the job market is slowing down as fears continue to mount. The tech industry in particular contributed to mass layoffs this year, driven by some of the biggest names in the world including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Yahoo, Amazon etc.

Google’s parent company Alphabet reduced their workforce by approximately 12,000 roles. CEO Sundar Pichai wrote in a letter to Google employees “we hired for a different economic reality than the one we face today.”

The global economy is slowly recovering from the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with situations like regional conflicts and disrupted trade routes. This also means that the international trade landscape is evolving drastically and so is job insecurity.

In such a dynamic job market, there are certain roles that are growing increasingly popular. The demand for skilled professionals in these job roles is skyrocketing.

So, if you’re looking for jobs with good scope and stability globally, consider exploring international trade. Let’s look at some of the fastest growing international trade jobs in 2023 globally and how you can break into these thriving sectors.

Marketing international trade jobs

The global marketing landscape is more diverse than ever before. A career in marketing usually involves good pay and quick growth. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics there is expected to be a 10% employment growth rate for marketing managers from 2021 to 2031. Professionals who understand international markets and consumer behavior are in high demand. Here are some of the most in demand global trade jobs that in the  marketing sector.

1.    Global Growth Manager

As an increasing number of businesses continue to expand globally, the demand for multifaceted professionals who can identify and capitalize on opportunities for expanding businesses internationally is greater than ever. Forbes talks about hiring the right leaders as one of the keys to getting global expansion right. Here is where Global Growth Managers come into the picture. They meticulously research market dynamics, consumer behavior, and emerging trends to formulate strategic plans for global expansion. By leveraging data-driven insights to navigate international business landscapes, they are indispensable assets in the quest for sustained global growth.

2.    International Business Development Executive

International Business Development Executives are instrumental in fostering global growth for companies operating in today’s interconnected world. Their job role involves nurturing strategic partnerships, collaborations, and alliances with businesses and organizations worldwide. With a deep understanding of international markets and the skills needed to identify new business opportunities in various regions and industries, these executives are at the forefront of forging international connections and creating synergies in the global marketplace.

E-commerce international trade jobs

E-commerce has become a cornerstone of international trade. With global e-commerce expected to show an annual growth rate of 11.17% from 2023 till 2027, it’s safe to say that it’s a thriving industry. Hence, it’s no surprise that the demand for skilled professionals to fill e-commerce jobs is at an all-time high right now. So, let’s explore some jobs that are increasingly growing in demand in e-commerce.

3.    E-commerce Operations Manager

At a time when e-commerce is thriving, E-commerce Operations Managers act as the driving force behind the seamless functioning of online businesses across borders. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that approximately 2,300 new jobs will be added for general and operations managers in e-commerce between 2016 and 2026. E-commerce Operations Managers are responsible for orchestrating and optimizing the day-to-day operations of e-commerce platforms, ensuring efficient order processing, inventory management, and timely delivery to customers around the world.

4.    E-commerce Business Analyst

Analytics is taking the world by storm and more businesses are recognizing the importance of leveraging big data in their expansion strategies. According to the World DataScience Initiative, about 80% of global enterprises are investing in a data analytics division, creating a great demand for analysts. E-commerce platforms collect a wealth of data and here is where E-commerce Business Analysts come into the picture. They are responsible for deciphering and decoding data and transforming it into actionable insights that drive strategic decisions. They are the analytical minds behind the success of international online businesses.

5.    E-commerce Project Manager

Project Managers are a crucial part of every organization and industry and e-commerce is no exception. The Project Management Institute’s ‘Project Management Job Growth and Talent Gap 2017–2027’ report predicts that by 2027, employers will need nearly 88 million individuals in project management-oriented roles. E-commerce Project Managers take on the responsibility of planning, executing, and overseeing critical e-commerce initiatives. Their role is pivotal in delivering projects on time and within budget, which is a necessity in today’s rapidly evolving e-commerce landscape.

International supply chain jobs

The supply chain sector is the backbone of international trade – transactions within global supply chains account for 76% of world trade. This is why it comes as no surprise that in today’s rapidly evolving global marketplace, supply chain professionals are at the forefront of ensuring that businesses can adapt, grow, and remain competitive. Here’s an in-depth look at the top supply chain jobs that are growing in prominence.

6.    Director of Procurement

Procurement is an essential aspect of the supply chain and the role of Director of Procurement is a crucial one. These individuals are responsible for securing the necessary materials and resources for businesses to operate on an international scale. This includes sourcing products globally, negotiating contracts, and managing supplier relationships.

7.    Supply Chain Analyst

Several predictions highlight that the demand for supply chain graduates will go through the roof in the next two years due to the fragility of global supply chains. Those will the skills of a Supply Chain Analyst should have no trouble landing a position. Supply Chain Analysts are experts who gather and analyze data on inventory, transportation, and production to identify bottlenecks and inefficiencies. They use this data to make informed decisions that enhance the supply chain’s efficiency and responsiveness to market changes.

8.    Process Improvement Manager

Process Improvement Manager is a relatively new job role but one that is rapidly growing in popularity. Their key responsibility is to find ways to enhance the overall efficiency of supply chain operations. They do this by identifying opportunities for streamlining processes, reducing waste, and improving the overall productivity of the supply chain. By implementing Lean and Six Sigma principles, they strive to drive continuous improvement, in an effort to make supply chains more agile and cost-effective.

International trade finance jobs

The finance sector in international trade has grown leaps and bounds over the past decade, with professionals playing a pivotal role in both financial management and technological adaptation. Diverse job opportunities and the integration of technology into financial practices means that the finance sector offers a promising career path for those seeking to navigate the financial frontier of international trade. Let’s look at some roles gaining more attention.

9.    Financial Risk Analyst

According to the Association for Financial Professionals Risk Survey, financial risks were among the top four risks having the greatest impact on earnings in the next three years. Financial risks can often make or break a business and this is where the role of Financial Risk Analysts becomes crucial. These professionals identify and manage the financial risks associated with international trade, including currency fluctuations, credit risk, and market volatility. They also curate risk management strategies to protect businesses from adverse financial events and help them navigate the complexities of international markets.

10.    Fintech Consultant

With the global fintech market being expected to reach a market value of $326 billion by 2026, the need to leverage this innovative technology in international trade is becoming imperative. Fintech Consultants help businesses achieve this by advising them on how to harness financial technology (fintech) solutions to improve their international trade operations. They help companies adopt digital payment systems, blockchain, and AI-powered financial tools to enhance efficiency and reduce costs.

Navigating the fast-growing world of international trade jobs

International trade is flourishing and so are opportunities for those equipped with the right skills and knowledge. If you have the right training and credentials, you’re one step closer to landing one of these lucrative jobs. Invest in specialized education, such as degrees in supply chain management or finance, to get the foundational knowledge needed to excel in these fields.

In addition to that, credentials that show you have knowledge and skills in key competency areas of international trade will give you a competitive advantage in this job market.

Staying informed about the latest industry trends and global market developments is also crucial. Follow trade organizations on social media (we recommend connecting with FITT’s growing LinkedIn community), sign up for industry newsletters, and look for networking events in your area.

Lastly, hone your language skills, especially if you want to land import and export jobs, as proficiency in multiple languages can enhance your appeal to global employers. Once you have developed the skills to grow your global trade career, the world of international trade jobs is yours to explore.

In the aftermath of a global pandemic and with the context of shifting geopolitical landscapes nations struggle with what looks like slowing trade. In this article we examine the current state of global trade, weighing the optimistic strides made against a backdrop of challenges.

Progress in August

First, the good news – it looks like significant progress in global trade growth was made in August, as several factors appear to support broader international trade – according to the WTO’s August 2023 trade report.

For example, Ukraine has initiated a significant move by opening a “humanitarian corridor” in the Black Sea for cargo ships. It’s a marked change when considering the recent collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Russia’s exit from the grain initiative and its subsequent blockade on Ukraine.

On a broader trade front, the WTO stated in the same report that services trade is witnessing what looks like more robust growth compared to merchandise trade. This difference is particularly accentuated thanks to export restrictions on key goods, including food and fertilizers.

In fact since 2020, there has been a significant increase in export restrictions. For instance, 63 such restrictions are in place for food, feed, and fertilizers.

Last year, the services trade saw a remarkable 15% boost, decisively outperforming the 2.7% growth in merchandise trade.

When combined, the total trade experienced a 13% surge, accumulating to an impressive $31 trillion.

Challenges in many corners

Diving deeper into global trade intricacies, we see a few pinch points – including a reminder of how physical pinch points such as the Suez and the Panama Canal can restrict global trade.

A severe drought at the Panama Canal is causing significant disruptions to global trade. In practice cargo ships have waited for extended periods, sometimes several weeks, to traverse the canal – which delayed cargo significantly, and led to a build-up of vessels.

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has had to limit the number of vessels using the canal and impose restrictions on ships’ depth, limiting the cargo they can carry, due to water scarcity. The ongoing drought situation is described as presenting “unprecedented challenges”.

The canal, which connects almost 2,000 ports across 170 countries, is pivotal for international trade, with major traffic from across the globe but in particular countries such as the United States, China, and Japan.

The drought’s impact on the canal emphasizes the increasingly disruptive consequences of the climate crisis on global supply chains.

Trade volume under policy pressure

China, a major player in the world’s economic scenario, registered a sharp decline in both exports, by 14.5%, and imports, by 12.4%, in July. One event that may have contributed is the US decision to curtail its investments in some pivotal Chinese tech sectors.

Also in the East, Japan and Qatar are keenly focused on strengthening their trade ties, but there’s a cloud of uncertainty between Japan and the US due to disagreements over whaling practices.

The changing global climate has also been exerting pressure on trade. Rising temperatures have escalated food prices, with soybeans, olive oil, and rice facing severe shortages.

The emphasis on climate-aligned foreign direct investment (FDI) is now seen arguably at the core of sustainable growth of developing nations.

A noteworthy development from the West is the recent downgrading of the US’s long-term credit rating, which poses intriguing questions about the behemoth economy’s future borrowing and investment capabilities.

IMF comment underlines global concerns

In the aftermath of a global pandemic, the world finds itself grappling with unprecedented challenges. Recent research from the Kansas City Federal Reserve paints a challenging picture of the post-pandemic global economy, highlighting issues like soaring government debt, geopolitical tensions, and an unsettling trajectory for technological innovation.

With the backdrop of geopolitical disruptions like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and escalating U.S.-China tensions, global trade appears to stand at a tough crossroads.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, underscores the fragility of the current state, noting that countries are drained after battling the pandemic, and that policy-driven forces and decoupling between China and the West add further strain.

The looming danger is a possible stagnation where parts of the world fail to progress, leading to demographic and migration pressures. Economists, including Gourinchas, believe that global growth might stagnate around 3%, a disappointing rate compared to the past where China’s rapid development drove figures above 4%.

Existing trends amplified by COVID-19

The impact of the pandemic amplified certain pre-existing trends. A paper by Serkan Arslanalp of the IMF and Barry Eichengreen from the University of California, Berkeley, reveals a troubling statistic: the ratio of public debt to global economic output surged to 60%.

This was largely driven by pandemic spending by governments. Such unsustainable levels of debt threaten to divert vital resources away from developing nations that have burgeoning populations but lack capital.

Recent geopolitical events, notably the Russian aggression against Ukraine, have also fragmented the longstanding belief that trade fosters lasting international partnerships.

COVID-19 had, of course, a huge impact on global trade flows and arguably became a movement where many participants in global trade decided that near-shoring is also the equivalent of de-risking.

It led to a pattern of nearshoring but World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala cautions against the current trend of reordering global production patterns. While diversifying trade might seem appealing, it’s essential to extend opportunities to those nations historically sidelined in the global trade arena.

What does global growth look like?

Global economic growth is a natural driver of trade growth. From an economic standpoint, recent economic projections from the IMF shows global growth decelerating, with projections declining from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% for 2023 and 2024.

Although inflation in developed economies shows signs of slowing, trade volumes are down. Manufacturing sectors worldwide are experiencing a slowdown, and while services are expanding, there’s noticeable deceleration.

The ripple effects of the pandemic also extend to the future of work, affecting urban economies. Demand for office spaces in major cities like New York, London, and San Francisco is dwindling, with average office attendance dropping significantly.

In general it could be suggested that global growth is somewhat anemic – and there are also signs that China may not offer much support in the near future.

Debt may continue to weigh on trade

Despite the myriad challenges facing global trade, and an ongoing recession threat, it’s worth considering the resilience shown by key economies. Growth in certain sectors, like the services trade, offer a beacon of hope.

The commitment of nations to navigate these complex issues, combined with the need to diversify and include historically sidelined nations, has the potential to reshape and strengthen global trade patterns for a more inclusive and prosperous future.

For organizations dependent on global trade it therefore depends on the ability to harness opportunities – which, though under pressure, will still be out there to harness.

With the Teamsters union reaching a tentative contract deal with UPS management just days short of the July 31 deadline, what is said to be the largest strike in a century against any U.S. employer, has been narrowly dodged.

Since UPS is responsible for almost a quarter of all U.S. deliveries, the strike would’ve been devastating on the U.S. economy. According to a study conducted by the consulting firm Anderson Economic Group, a 10-day UPS strike would stand as the costliest strike in at least a century, inflicting a staggering $7 billion economic impact on the U.S. economy.

UPS delivers more than 24.3 million packages everyday and its competitors like FedEX and DHL would not have been able to bear that kind of backlog had the strike taken place. “In the event of a market disruption, no carrier can absorb all UPS volume,” FedEx executives wrote earlier this month.

These disruptions have far-reaching implications for U.S. imports and exports, as delays and bottlenecks in key ports can ripple through the entire supply chain, affecting businesses across the continent.

And as we talk about supply chain disruptions, the impact of the Canadian BC port strike adds further challenges to North American shipping. Canadian National Railway Co., the country’s largest railway, predicts it will take two months to recover from the B.C. port strike. The recent two-week strike at B.C. ports halted freight flows through West Coast terminals, leading to a minor impact on earnings this quarter.

Projected impacts on North American shipping

The strikes have triggered considerable supply chain disruptions across North America. Additionally, freight forwarding and shipping services are under pressure due to increased demand amid global trade uncertainties. These disruptions have led to delays, congestion at ports, and challenges in meeting delivery timelines.

“I expect we’ll see shortages of inputs, higher shipping prices, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers, and longer lead times for deliveries if the strike takes place,” Bart De Muynck, chief industry officer at project44, a supply-chain data company told Bloomberg in an email.

According to survey results released by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business 53% of business owners believed that the strike will affect their operations.

Even though a tentative resolution has been met in both cases, the surge in freight forwarding demand will likely cause prolonged delays in the supply chain. This situation can lead to increased costs, reduced profitability, and potential damage to business reputations. As U.S. and Canadian imports and exports are affected, industries relying heavily on timely shipments, such as retail and manufacturing, may face significant challenges in meeting customer demands.

7 ways businesses can mitigate the unforeseen

As the shipping industry grapples with ongoing disruptions, businesses must consider mitigating actions to protect against further crises.

1.    Diversify shipping routes

To mitigate the impact of port strikes and disruptions, businesses should adopt a proactive approach and work to diversify their shipping routes. It is crucial to collaborate with reliable freight forwarders who can assist in identifying alternative routes that can be utilized during times of disruption.

By exploring and establishing contingency plans for various shipping options, they can ensure smoother operations and minimize the adverse effects of potential disruptions on their supply chains.

2.    Leverage multiple carriers

Relying solely on a single carrier at any point along a shipping route can leave businesses vulnerable to delays and bottlenecks when a strike occurs.

Experienced freight forwarders and logistics experts can help you plan for back-up carriers, both domestic and international, to spread the shipment load and minimize dependency on one provider.

This strategy not only minimizes the impact of major disruptions but also enhances flexibility and adaptability in the face of even minor challenges, allowing for the best service available.

3.    Optimize technology and tracking

Businesses can utilize advanced tracking systems and technology to monitor shipments in real-time. These systems enhance visibility and enable more proactive responses to potential delays or rerouting. This enhanced visibility provides businesses with crucial data and insights, allowing them to stay informed about the location, status, and potential challenges their shipments might face.

With real-time tracking, companies can  identify any potential delays or deviations from the planned routes sooner, enabling them to take immediate actions to address these issues.

4.    Re-evaluate contracts

Having full clarity on liability and compensation terms within shipping contracts and freight forwarding agreements is essential to navigate through periods of uncertainty. Are the correct Incoterms identified throughout the contract? Seeking professional legal advice during contract negotiations can help businesses to identify potential gaps or loopholes that could leave them vulnerable during crises.

By renegotiating contracts to include specific clauses that address issues related to labour disruptions, force majeure events, and supply chain delays, they can establish a solid framework for handling unforeseen challenges.

5.    Proactive communication

When faced with potential delays or disruptions, it is essential to keep customers informed in a timely and honest manner. Openly sharing information about the challenges being faced and the steps being taken to address them fosters trust and confidence in the business relationship.

By providing regular updates on the status of shipments and any possible delays, businesses can manage customer expectations and allow them to plan accordingly.

6.    Identify opportunities for flexibility

Another important thing businesses can do to is assess their logistics operations and identifying areas where they can be flexible. This involves recognizing parts of the supply chain where slower delivery or alternative transportation methods can be accommodated without compromising overall operations.

By identifying areas of flexibility, businesses can proactively communicate with suppliers, freight forwarders, and customers to set appropriate expectations and develop contingency plans.

7.    Invest in risk management

Investing in risk management is crucial for businesses seeking to enhance their supply chain resilience. By developing robust risk management strategies, companies can proactively address potential disruptions before they escalate into significant challenges.

A comprehensive risk management approach involves carefully analyzing the supply chain from end to end, identifying vulnerabilities, and understanding how various scenarios could impact operations.

What does the future look like for businesses impacted by the North American shipping strikes?

In the face of ongoing challenges, businesses must prepare for a future that prioritizes resilience and adaptability.

The recent strikes and disruptions have highlighted the need for diversified shipping routes, efficient risk management strategies, and transparent communication with customers.

Embracing advanced tracking technology and collaborating with reliable freight forwarders will become essential components of successful supply chain management.

Looking ahead, the future of shipping in North America will likely witness a growing emphasis on optimizing imports and exports through robust and flexible logistics networks. By proactively addressing potential disruptions and investing in innovative solutions, businesses can position themselves to thrive in an evolving and dynamic shipping environment, where the new normal is to expect the unexpected.

Anniversary occasions are always a great opportunity to reflect on the past while looking toward the future. On Thursday, March 9th, FITT and our esteemed group of CITPs and CITP milestone anniversary celebrants did just that.  

During our 2023 CITP Milestone Anniversary Event, we celebrated CITPs marking their 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year anniversaries. The online fête included inspiring speeches by FITT President, CEO, and CITP Caroline Tompkins; The Honourable Perrin Beatty, PC, OC, Honourary CITP and President and CEO of The Canadian Chamber of Commerce; and Denise Amyot, Chair of FITT’s Board of Directors.  

The event also officially kicked-off festivities for the CITP designation’s 25th anniversary—a momentous achievement for FITT and all CITPs who have been part of the Certified International Trade Professional designation’s journey over the past quarter century.

Caroline Tompkins noted that those wishing to partake in the festivities are encouraged to use and check out the #CITPis25 hashtag to see all the online excitement happening to commemorate the occasion from now until June—the designation’s official anniversary month. 

CITPs reflect on their anniversaries

There were many event highlights to note, chief among them were touching quotes from notable milestone recipients. Caroline Tompkins shared these stories with the crowd, including the following sentiments from one of FITT’s first-ever CITPs, Bob Greaves—who celebrated his 25th anniversary this year. She noted that Bob said he’s “…been proud to represent himself as a CITP—it is the one designation he’s maintained over the years because of its relevancy and value.”  

Similarly, she shared a quote from Emiliano Introcaso—a CITP celebrating his 10-year anniversary—who said:

“…becoming a CITP makes it possible for me to practice and promote international trade in a way that is professional and ethical. The designation is a logical extension for people who truly want to crown their education and experience in global business and thrive in international markets.”

‘Now’s the time for vision’

In other speeches, the Honourable Perrin Beatty brought foresight and gravitas to the occasion, discussing the challenges and opportunities facing businesses working in a global market. He didn’t shy away from noting the realities of our current trade ecosystem impacted by COVID-19, geo-political conflicts, supply chain snarls, trade barriers and climate change—all of which have exposed “significant vulnerabilities in the global economy.”  

But, more than the challenges, Mr. Beatty highlighted the importance of trained trade professionals within this ecosystem. He encouraged CITPs to lead businesses trying to navigate these complexities, so they can see and take advantage of opportunities that are arising even during these disruptive times.

Canada, specifically, is rich with resources and commodities that the world wants, and it needs businesses led by knowledgeable trade professionals who can help open up these promising new trade markets.

“Now’s the time for vision,” he concluded, inspiring many in attendance to think about their role in the future of the world’s trade systems. 

Milestone recipients shine in the spotlight

In one of the most anticipated moments of the event, milestone celebrants were honoured with a rousing speech by Denise Amyot, Chair, FITT Board of Directors. She recognized the whopping 114 milestone recipients, all listed below: 

Capped off by a lively breakout networking session and a fun quiz, it’s safe to say that this year’s event was a success, garnering meaningful discussions and tributes for our milestone CITPs and the international trade community as a whole.

A huge congratulations to all those who celebrated their anniversaries, and a big thank you to all those who attended.  

Watch the entire event recap in the video below!